bacci, you're wrong, page-2

Asf,
Nice to be able to chat.

I have been predicting price falls correctly on PSH since it was about 70c. Others have said I was too pessimistic. directors have even bought in on the way down. They have lost money.

Your analysis is based on the idea that someone would want to take over Penrice. The only way I could imagine this would be an industry changing technological breakthrough with the saline filtration project.

Soda Ash has been produced via the Solvay process (as at Penrice)or the mining of naturally occuring Ash since the early 1800's. The technology is very mature. There has been a continual shift from Solvay to Natural Ash since the 1950's. Solvay plants have been steadily closing.

With Penrice cash flow negative for the foreseeable future (in my opinion, reinforced by the actual trend) why would anyone want to take it over?

The spiral down the gurgler for Penrice is accelerating. The plant is older, the mine is deeper, energy is more expensive, carbon tax is coming and the interest on debt is compounding.

bacci