Crops in Europe at risk of drought Updated: 2012-03-23 07:43(China Daily)
European wheat and rapeseed crops are at risk of drought that may further hurt yields after freezing weather last month destroyed some fields, analysts said.
France, Spain, England and northern Italy got less rain than normal since the start of January, European Union weather data show. They will probably stay drier and warmer than usual in the next 30 days, said Joel Burgio, an agricultural meteorologist at Telvent DTN.
The 27-nation EU typically grows about 20 percent of the world's soft wheat. A cold wave in February may have lopped 5 million metric tons off this year's harvest, and a lack of rain might further harm EU output, according to Alexandre Marie, an analyst at French farm adviser Offre et Demande Agricole.
"The situation in Europe is alarming," Marie said on Wednesday. "That will remain a factor of support for the market in coming weeks."
Paris-traded milling wheat for November delivery was priced above the grain for December delivery in Chicago for the first time in the contracts' lifetime on Feb 7. Buyers now need to pay $14.29 a ton more for French wheat.
"We're already starting to see a market reaction," Marie said. European wheat has gained on US grain because of concern about frost damage to the crop, and drought is an additional risk, he said.
Rainfall in northern France, England and the north of Italy this year was 23 percent to 47 percent below the long-term average, data from the EU's Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit show. In Spain and France's Mediterranean region, amounts were 59 percent to 78 percent lower.
An area of high atmospheric pressure is causing a so-called blocking effect that prevents Atlantic Ocean frontal systems from moving into Europe, Jim Dale, a senior meteorologist at British Weather Services, said by phone.
"The rest of March will be dry, with high pressure more or less in control," he said. "In April and May, there will be some rain. Will it be significant enough to make up for the loss we've had? If spring doesn't deliver, summer's too late."
Spain was "extremely dry" in the December-February period, with the lowest rainfall since at least 1947, the country's Agriculture Ministry said on Tuesday. Average rain was 62 millimeters, 30 percent of typical levels, according to the ministry.
"In the case of Spain, there is most likely damage to crops," Burgio at Telvent DTN said. "They typically rely on winter rains to make the crops, and the winter rains have been very disappointing."
Spanish production of wheat and barley typically fluctuates based on rainfall. Last year's soft-wheat crop jumped to 5.97 million tons from 4.80 million tons in 2010, and the barley harvest rose to 8.33 million tons from 8.16 million tons, according to government data.
"If Spain produced 1 million tons less of barley, that could lead to large imports of feed grains into the European Union," said Pierre Raye, an analyst at Paris-based InVivo, the largest exporter of French wheat.
The European Commission last month forecast the bloc's wheat harvest will climb 2.5 percent this year to 133 million tons from 129.8 million tons in 2011 as yields increase.
