Ann: Supply Agreement with NSW Ambulance Service , page-38

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  1. 2,444 Posts.
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    re: Ann: Supply Agreement with NSW Ambulance ... Thanks for the info Vontrader. Just starting to get my head around this. Below are my musings, happy to be corrected.

    Looking at the cash in hand this capital raising is needed to get to the next stage. With directors being underwriters (& from what I see) also Bankrolling this to some degree shows enormous faith. Unfortunately I don't know much about them (ie not CEO's per se) but more this project is more their baby & good to see they are drawing a nominal wage during this development period & should enjoy the fruits of their labour (via shares/options) with this getting into production.

    Chart seem to show price is at a long time low. One of the few negatives I see is that the stock is not liquid & small current cash position (keeps day traders away at least ;0 ). With periods of no trades it makes the reliability of charts lower & one would have to rely on the financial analysis to give direction. (I have attached a chart for those interested.

    Positives (potential) seem to out weigh the negatives.

    Recent capital raising of 1, 2c share with 2 (free)attached options with exercise price of 4c (Sept/12) & 8c (June/13) would indicate that they would want the options in the money by then, otherwise will need to raise capital again & could prove difficult if they don't hit target on this throw.

    With a market cap of $8m (ish) & 414M shares on issue, impact of bring on a couple of hospitals (at $500k each) would certainly be positive.

    Been burnt on bio tech / medical before, but what I like about this is simplicity, maturity in development stage & replacing an existing tech (this being superior), low manufacturing cost with high product usage/ one use.

    Probably talking to the converted. Just thinking aloud here & would like to hear of an other hurdles that may be still to come.

    I see it has it's CE approval (good) & therefore would assume failure rate is nil.

    Doing some back of the envelope calcs here, so happy to be corrected. But say each hospital is worth $500k (saw that no quoted before)& they get another 4 on top of the 2 existing..

    Income $3M / 828m (No of share fully diluted 414M +138M rights issue + 138M 4c opts + 138M 8c opts - excludes unlisted options) =earnings per share 3.6c with a PE of say 15 to 20 = 5.4c - 7.2 c per share value. (gets you to the highest options conversion price at least)

    I would be dissappointed if only another 4 hospital was to be their target in the next 2 years.

    Conclusion - I think it might be worth throwing a few shekels at this one & see what sticks, but be prepared to be 'stuck' in the trade due to low liquidity of the stock until extra future sales are shored up.


    M

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