holding, page-2

maybe tony boyd on afr back page read my post of yesterday!!!


SERIOUSLY - i have read the tony boyd article and it is interesting but there are a few big floors in his analysis:

- one is that bkw would or should succumb to a $15 offer when it holds 43% of such an undervalued asset in sol

- two is that his valuation of $20 odd on sol only reflected the upside in share price in getting the BKW OWNED shares cancelled - I.E. he DID NOT have a stab at valuing what you would have left in sol and what it would be worth


MY ROUGH NUMBERS:

$ 10 TO $12 SHARE IN CASH PLUS WHAT EXISTS NOW WHICH I THINK IS OVER $400M - their accouts i read were consol so it is a bit hard to work out ( for me ) exactly what the parent entity would have- there could be a big tax on capital gains but the cash on hand should cover it and i have allowed a discount for some tax in the 10 to 12 dollar figure - valued new hope at $5.3 billion which is a discount to some of the figures i have seen

- they would then have brickworks building material and property devlt ( and industrial trust ) $700m to $900m

- tpg $200m, ruralco $40m, clover $10m, spel $80m ,bki $80m, and copperchem $60m

other listed invest $500m

that would take figure to well over $20 ( with bkw shares cancelled we would have about 140m shares ) and api's priceline could be a sleeper which i havent valued due to low market capln- there are numerous other potential "sleeper" investments including one or two they could decide to keep in the new hope coal selling process!

bkw is very strategic but the milners done own nearly as many shares

it is a bit rough and i have been buying these and some bkw last couple days but i better hurry and buy some more as it looks like others are waking up!!

STILL, I REMEMBER DOING SOME OF THESE NUMBERS A COUPLE OF YEARS AGO AND THINKING SURELY THEY WOULD DO SOMETHING TO TIDY UP THE STRUCTURE - NO GUARANTEES THAT THEY WILL!!!

please do your own research and errors could be present in the above calculations etc

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