will it bounce off gfc lows ?, page-6

GUnter i agree the railcorp fiasco is a problem. Long term outlook not good hence the downer sp. However a few things we need to consider.firstly the debt is non recourse to downer ie if railcorp fail there is no requirement for downer to do anything. Nsw gov own half this problem and in all likely hood they will need to do something. The gov wants and needsbthe trains so they will have to act in some way. Worst case svenario for downer is the contract cannot be fullfilled and they bear the costs of equipment overseas sub contracts etc and warratah grinds to a halt. This will cost about 400 million. Not good but they can ustilize a lot of that equipment in other contracts ie western australia so probably wouldnt be that dire. Best case scenario the govt does what it has to and backs railcorps financial problems andwe continue as we are now, at this stage downer just needs to keep delivering the trains on time as they are due and theirshould be no short term problems.

To me this looks like the fall and rise right after gfc. If downer play their cards right and things fall their with railcorp wecould see a steep climb after the first report this financial year. The ratings groups are mixed on this stock with hal recomending by and alf sell so next 4 months are cruical, i think we are close to a low so coss fingers and see what happend. (tping thi from an ipad so forgive my punftuation and spelling)