right angle triangle - bearish signal

Guys,

I am following YTC for the past more than 2 years.

I am completely convinced about the fundamentals of YTC. Great management, High Grade Copper at Nymagee, Gold reserves at Hera, high margin open pit mining before going underground, Synergy effect of combining Hera and Mymagee production (as it is separated by only 4.5Kms) etc.

But technically YTC looks very bad.

This is my observation by looking at the daily chart. Look at the high (around 80cents) it touched in April and the low of around 51cents 3/4 times in the last few months.

YTC formed a right angle triangle and it is very bearish. The conditions for the right angle triangle per book are:-

1. Lower highs (80cents in april and 70cents in July)
2. Same lows (around 51cent)
3. Low volume before the pattern is broken
4. Comes at the end a trend (always upper trend)

All these conditions are pretty much satisfied for the YTC chart.

the target if the 50-51cents bottom is broken is 20cents.

Looking into the fundamentals it is foolishness to predict 20cents for YTC.

But there is only one reason YTC could touch 20-30cents int the near future. The reason is a capital rise by YTC to construct the mine. They may need around 150 Million for this and if they have to come out with a rights issue. And they may have price it a good discount(as the overall market sentiment is so bad and volatile).

I am still not sure whether such a right issue will bring down YTC price to such a level.

Anyway very interesting as the technical and fundamentals of this company gives us two EXTREME picture.

I will hold YTC till they produce and give us dividends. These are just my views about the short term (6/9months) trends.

Good luck holders.

Cheers

Hari