crystal ball gazing

It's always difficult to out guess the big players in any takeover. My recollection of the Pure Energy scenario was that Arrow pitched a low ball offer and it looked like it was in the bag. This dragged on for a few weeks before another bidder emerged and then a hotly contested battle was on. This time though I sense things are different.
BOW's acreage is still largely unknown, although in parts highly prospective, and there hasn't been much euphoria around CSG for some time. It almost seems there is a lack of interest by the bigger players to shore up reserves although I think it's more likely they need something more defined than 3P. That's why the timing of Arrow's bid is highly opportunistic. They are willing to accept the risk since they know the acreage of BOW better than most and certainly they have a better track record of proving up resources.
So will we get anything like "fair value" for our shares -
probably not. As anyone in marketing will tell you - the value of something is only what someone is willing to pay and right now that's $1.48! However the value is only formally established when there is a completed transaction at that price. Right now it's only an offer and there is no reason for the directors to capitulate - not yet anyway.
A couple of things worth noting are -
1. If BOW Mgtmnt reject the offer outright and Arrow withdraw their offer rather than revise it then that suggests there isn't as much value in the company as we all think and consequently the share heads south rapidly.
2. If there isn't another bidder then any revision will be only minor (maybe $1.60 or $1.70)
3. If BOW refuses to negotiate and tries to go it alone or the offer is withdrawn then we'll be in for multiple capital raisings (80 mill disappears fast in this game)and have all the attendant risks of an exploration company.
4. BOW's gas is still uncontracted - we need a JV of significant size to team up with otherwise we're up the creek with gas but no paddle.
So my response is sit tight for the moment and try and have faith in management knowing their best interests are our best interests as well.