reply from ceo, page-9

I can't find any record of them saying explicitly "this coal will get $60/t."

What they said was carefully worded - they said "The coal price at the Chinese border is approximately $60/ tonne and seaborne thermal coal is currently selling at $120/ tonne."

That is true for various benchmark indexes, but that changes with grade and over time. 4000kcal is the lowest grade you can get, which might be $60/t at the moment (since coal prices are still elevated from the Qld floods) but the long-term average price will be more like $35-40/t.

China's pricing system has 6000, 5500, 5000, 4500 and 4000kcal coals. The last is what TVN has, the lowest grade coal (hence why I said it's D-grade thermal).

From what I can tell, 4000 usually is priced about half of 6000. So TVN's margin will depend on the long-term coal price.

The 2 drill results to date are encouraging, to say the least, so I am hopeful they will prove up far more than 100mt.

I would say that is highly likely. Lignites are well known for their thick seams, 100m is not unusual. So I expect these thicknesses will persist over much of the tenement. The main thing to worry about is depth, which will affect whether they can mine it cheaply enough.

I will do up a rough tonnage estimate later on but it wouldn't surprise me if they have more than 500Mt there.

Don't get me wrong, at $30M market cap I have no doubt that say a 600Mt JORC will send the SP flying. I'm not saying TVN is a bad investment. I'm just saying their coal is low quality and that using the Qdaf figure is misleading. That's all.