Based on discussion with the company, I am led to believe that the current price of ADE acreage is around $300 (lower end) - $500 (upper end) per acre based on what they know already. However, I daresay they would not let a sale pass through at that price, and would be doing everything in their power to determine enough stats and figures (reserves estimate and pricing etc) to boost the acreage value to upwards of the $1,000 - $1,200 mark by years end. (or before)
While some quote upwards of $5,000 - $12,000 per acre in the US, even the companies here realise we are a very different pricing ballgame and prices per acre will be somewhat lower.
I realise there is some excitement on the ADE thread about what price per acre is viable, but excitement tends to run away from the facts at times.
Rexsh...before I get into 'he said', 'you said', 'they said' issue, it is safe to say that I am fairly diligent when it comes to putting my money into someone else's business. I invested in ADE some time ago and have followed the ups and downs without ever selling any. Silly trading concept in this case, because I usually tend to sell and buy through a period of stock growth, but ADE is a little different. I like what I read and I like the management team so I have adopted the riskier approach of sit and accumulate based on:
1. Consistent communication with my lead advisor at patersons (not a promotion or sales pitch) and an analyst (not shrink) 2. Clear understanding of the risk/rewards 3. Company updates 4. Discussions via phone/email etc to the company to ask questions. 5. Reading into the posters on forums such as this
So where does Amok stand in all this?
If you read any of my posts, I tend not to banty around figures, as I think data is manipulated often at times to suit a purpose. On forums where posters tend to have a purpose, such data can be used to influence sentiment, and I tend to avoid such tactics. Fortunately here on ADE we have a great bunch of posters who are generally supportive.
Now where did my acreage numbers come from? Let me reiterate what I said above..."Based on discussion with the company". That does not mean they said or did not say. Nor does it imply I spoke to any one person in particular. ( I will keep that info close for the moment). But implies from all the data I have from the company this is what I can agree on in terms of my investment.
For those of you speculating on the high end of acreage values, I would suggest you check with the company before spruiking high end values. You might find they don't agree....as yet. Furthermore...if you ask them nicely, they might even tell you why such high end values are not to be applied here (as yet) and what they are hoping to achieve with the company near and far term.
Nothing market sensitive in this post, but I am extremely confident in the company and the leaps and bounds ahead this year, not just in shale gas.
Why did I post and ask for info on the largest holder in the company recently? Time will answer that...
Amok
ADE Price at posting:
14.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
