It says Peabody's last/prior bid was rejected on May 18, 2010, afer it was bumped up to $16, then reduced to $15, following the attempted introduction of the RSPT.
The key difference is that this is a takeover scheme- which can go hostile- rather than a scheme of arrangement.
Citic and Posco won't be as strong now, as the deal requires only 50.01% acceptance level (vs 75% of shares voted, and 50% of shares at the meeting for a scheme), MG Global said in a note to clients.
MG Global also mentioned that New Hope Coal have around $1.5b in net cash, but have taken over NEC, so may have less of an appetite. It is also speculated that XStrata bid $16 in 2008, and were rumoured to be having a close look at MCC last year.
The broker says it is highly probable that the offer succeeds and is accepted by the Board, with a small possibility that XStrata might get involved.
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Also in the AFR, some fund managers say the offer is opportunistic. I imagine there'll be swathes of articles and analysis tomorrow morning and in the coming days.
MCC Price at posting:
$11.08 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
