two weeks are up..., page-21

With 10% of my portfolio in Amadeus, I too wish my assumptions are in error.

To add to my previous posts however, I confirm the exchange rate has moved more than 10%. The date the deal was announced was not the date the deal was signed (and I have checked with the company specifically on this matter).

I'd also love to be proved wrong on transaction completion risk, but I can't see there is any way that the Eden deal will go through at 35c. We might like to think there's an offer on the table and Eden can take it or leave it. But put yourself in the shoes of Eden's negotiators. They will be thinking that if Eden walks, the share price will be back at around 20c or lower, so why wouldn't the shareholders take 30c? [Solid logic in my mind].

And the only disagreement from me on transaction completion risk is that it is likely to be higher than Hartleys 40%, and is most likely to result from a hairy-chested 'take it or leave it' response from management to Eden's (reasonable-in-the-circumstances) request to settle for 30c. That's why we're trading at 26c, because many people don't believe that management has what it takes to close the deal, even if it is at a discount to the original offer.