collapse of aud equals favourable nta movement

Hi all,

Recently there was a thread discussing whether it was prudent for CER to hedge to US$500M to be repatriated back to Australia.

Well, whilst it was stomach wrenching watching some of the events that are unfolding in Japan, the collapse of the AUD is having a material favourable impact on CER's NTA.

Below is a sensitivity analysis showing how the NTA will change depending on the AUD/USD rate at the time of settlement.

It should be noted that at the time of the announcement on 1 March, the AUD/USD rate was 1.0173 (source: Oanda.com)Therefore, the current AUD/USD rate of 98.44 means much more AUD repatriated.

An exchange rate of 0.98 means nearly $19m more AUD brought back to Australia, which means $19m more debt paid down, which means 0.8c higher NTA and lower gearing.

Anyway the collapse of the AUD is a great thing for us, hopefully it continues to depreciate, however not at the expense of further aggrevation of what is happening in Japan.

All the best.

Cheers



USD....Exchange Rate....AUD...."Increase in AUD compared to 1/3/11"...."NTA Improvement"....New NTA

500,000,000.00...1.05...476,190,476.19...-15,306,623.98 ...-0.007...0.403
500,000,000.00...1.04...480,769,230.77...-10,727,869.40 ...-0.005...0.405
500,000,000.00...1.03...485,436,893.20...-6,060,206.96 ...-0.003...0.407
500,000,000.00...1.02...490,196,078.43...-1,301,021.74 ...-0.001...0.409
500,000,000.00...1.0173...491,497,100.17...0.00...0.00...0.41
500,000,000.00...1.01...495,049,504.95...3,552,404.78 ...0.002...0.412
500,000,000.00...1.00...500,000,000.00...8,502,899.83 ...0.004...0.414
500,000,000.00...0.99...505,050,505.05...13,553,404.88 ...0.006...0.416
500,000,000.00...0.98...510,204,081.63...18,706,981.47 ...0.008...0.418
500,000,000.00...0.97...515,463,917.53...23,966,817.36 ...0.010...0.420
500,000,000.00...0.96...520,833,333.33...29,336,233.17 ...0.013...0.423
500,000,000.00...0.95...526,315,789.47...34,818,689.31 ...0.015...0.425
500,000,000.00...0.94...531,914,893.62...40,417,793.45 ...0.018...0.428
500,000,000.00...0.93...537,634,408.60...46,137,308.44 ...0.020...0.430
500,000,000.00...0.92...543,478,260.87...51,981,160.70 ...0.023...0.433
500,000,000.00...0.91...549,450,549.45...57,953,449.28 ...0.025...0.435
500,000,000.00...0.9...555,555,555.56...64,058,455.39 ...0.028...0.438
500,000,000.00...0.89...561,797,752.81...70,300,652.64 ...0.031...0.441
500,000,000.00...0.88...568,181,818.18...76,684,718.01 ...0.033...0.443
500,000,000.00...0.87...574,712,643.68...83,215,543.51 ...0.036...0.446
500,000,000.00...0.86...581,395,348.84...89,898,248.67 ...0.039...0.449
500,000,000.00...0.85...588,235,294.12...96,738,193.95 ...0.042...0.452
500,000,000.00...0.84...595,238,095.24...103,740,995.07 ...0.045...0.455
500,000,000.00...0.83...602,409,638.55...110,912,538.39 ...0.048...0.458
500,000,000.00...0.82...609,756,097.56...118,258,997.39 ...0.051...0.461
500,000,000.00...0.81...617,283,950.62...125,786,850.45 ...0.055...0.465
500,000,000.00...0.8...625,000,000.00...133,502,899.83 ...0.058...0.468
500,000,000.00...0.79...632,911,392.41...141,414,292.24 ...0.061...0.471
500,000,000.00...0.78...641,025,641.03...149,528,540.86 ...0.065...0.475
500,000,000.00...0.77...649,350,649.35...157,853,549.18 ...0.069...0.479
500,000,000.00...0.76...657,894,736.84...166,397,636.67 ...0.072...0.482
500,000,000.00...0.75...666,666,666.67...175,169,566.50 ...0.076...0.486
500,000,000.00...0.74...675,675,675.68...184,178,575.51 ...0.080...0.490
500,000,000.00...0.73...684,931,506.85...193,434,406.68 ...0.084...0.494
500,000,000.00...0.72...694,444,444.44...202,947,344.28 ...0.088...0.498
500,000,000.00...0.71...704,225,352.11...212,728,251.95 ...0.092...0.502
500,000,000.00...0.7...714,285,714.29...222,788,614.12 ...0.097...0.507