baycorp sale, page-2

I am locked and loaded on this one. I eagerly await news re sale of Signature, although it seems to be taking too long which is never a good sign. Notwithstanding this I believe that both Signature and Baycorp must be prospering in the current environment. I take comfort from Credit Corps half year results also. As for ISF, well who knows and I factor nil valuation so that anything here is upside. the only real risk to my expected 50% upside is that the board makes a poor decision re recapitalisation of ISF. It is the conversion of cash to "good money after bad" that remains the risk. Offsetting this is that ANZ are a reluctant 25% holder and I expect they continue to press hard for every cent of distribution and seek to keep the managed realisation on track.

I hope for positive news upon half year reporting next week. I note OCP's April 2009 announcement, and encourage you to read it. It basically forces them to go to shareholders to hold a vote on a wind up (I wonder how ANZ will vote !!!). My expectations are for a sale of Signature followed by a sale of Baycorp 50% interest, and distribution of cash followed by an in specie distribution of the ISF shares and convertible notes. All up this should deliver approx $2.00+ IMO.

Wishing all shareholders well!