auk down, where to from here?

I'm new to this place. Hello. Long first post, but hoefully with a stock that seems to need some discussion from what I've seen on this forum!

Caveat ... I'm new to this stock but its intrigued me ...being focussed on Jampang in Indo at the minute.

I'd appreciate some thought on this, noting - based on a quick search - that there are a few holders in the stock that pop up from time to time on HC but not much other interest. Which I think is interesting because of the gains over the last few years.

I know the hype (or lack of) on AUK is about Jampang for now, and that got me into it (now at a short term loss - I think) because I believe in the investment potential of Indo (6th year up on year on year growth with increasingly effective democratic institutions albeit some minor religioous communal tensions for the govt to police).

But a few things about AUK get me thinking - and the more I learnt about the company the less I queried the Indo resource!

First is an overlay of the 1 and 3 year nickel price over AUK SP. There appears to be some correlation (have a look ... tell me I'm wrong?).

Then have a look at the 5 year nickel highs of USD24 in 2007 before the GFC. Then consider USD/AUD rates ... implications???

Then consider that nickel prices have been on a steady but cautiuos return upward for nearly 2 years (after the initial AUK SP dropped heavily with them). Anyone reading have any insights on nickel prices and where they might be heading? Medium term TA mixed with uncertain global economic trends could give you anything!

But ... AUK hasn't followed nickel prices this time in the last few months (or not yet anyway ... SP punched on down neary 30% of highs to 0.20 while nickel rose steadily). If you have a look historically there was also a delay during Feb-April 2010. But the SP has generally, until a month ago, followed by a less cautious rise.

The immediate focus instead for the company seems (at the face of it)on gold/copper(silver?) in Indo. Tell me if I'm wrong, but they still have the high grade reserves being held 'until the price is right' based on 2008 reporting. If nickel keeps going (which it might not), if it starts sniffing at $15-$20 USD then there might be a big bounce for AUK on the way. That's potentially 'irregardless' of the gold/copper play in Indo, which might not poke its nose up again to spike short term news rises until deeper into our autumn.

Clearly some 5-10 bag returns over the last 2 years for holders at the right time, but where to from here for those trying to understand the stock? Market doesn't like it much for the last month or so.

12 month TA looks intriguing from here too ... its on a clear major downtrend and smells potentially quite nervy in the immediate term especially for those who have come into it at above 0.25 riding the upward MACD and volume back in mid october.

The reason I'm interested in knowing more is because from my check its now a made a big move down(to 0.20)from recent highs (of 0.35). But its also sitting on the base of a 12 month steady uptrend, as well as a strong support line at 0.20.

The next downward support line is 0.15. If it breaks down through the 12 month trend and hits that it will be a greater than 50% decrease on the yearly high. While a bunch of small play resource stocks have definitley lost their glimmer on the last few months, that's a major pull out and loss of faith in the project without much negative news to charge it.

On the upside, in the last 12 months the SP has hit the same point on the trend line two other times ... each time its bounced more than 100% within around 6 or 7 weeks (0.10-0.25 and 0.15-0.35). If this becomes one of those times, its a TA target of approx 0.40.

If any of this is worth investigating, here's the query (assumption: previous NSW resources are being held for better prices):

Will nickel continue up to 2007 levels in the mid term?

Will the market want to re-track the AUK SP with the price of nickel, or will it get caught up in the (only recently more volatile) gold base?

Or did the nickel resources get sold away and I've missed something critical in my investigation?

Any views?. This company appears either to have a longer term strategic focus, or think they do and don't. For me there's more ticks upward than downward though, and I'd appreciate the views of other HC contributors.

This is one I've enjoyed learning about - keen to learn more ...

COLCOM