smart risk tolerant money to be made, page-20

I chose MOG because it has the weakest price, and also is capitalised enough to recover if this hole is a duster. It's a bit of a bloodbath out there on the market at the moment, and this hole coincides with an especially weak period over the last couple of months. Many securities on my wishlist have moved into acceptable price ranges, and I'm buying heavily at the moment.

Fortune works both ways; the price response is probably going to be subdued in the case of success. If it is too subdued - i.e. doesn't at least quadruple - then I'm happy to hold for another six months while the market recovers and fully values the new well, all while MOG goes and drills more prospects. Or Santos lobs a takover bid :D

On the other hand, if there's a large rise, and everyone offloads the weeks after a success announcement during continuing bad market sentiment, then I'll be rebuying.

Price and probability - it's that simple.