CRK 0.00% 26.5¢ carrick gold limited

only a matter of time, page-16

  1. 10,469 Posts.
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    Thanks CW

    I have owned NGF on and off since around April 2008 (somehow it feels a lot longer than that). I am not a current NGF holder but I still follow them.

    NGF's June 2010 quarterly report indicates it is seeking to do a deal with other parties to process non-NGF ore, so I believe that is the way CRK will initially become a miner. It should have a significant impact on its share price. CRK has enough ore in the measured category to probably start such an operation (none of CRK's resource has yet been converted to reserves).

    I am aware that NGF needs to lower its milling costs, and doing such a deal is in its interests. However, I do not believe it has the funds to do a takeover of CRK at a meaningful price for CRK shareholders. NGF has just cleared its hedge by taking on another significant loan and what funds it has at hand may be needed to pay out its C Note holders, unless it can force conversion (see the NGF C Note prospectus on how this could occur).

    An alternative to a takeover by NGF would be a merger, but this could be excessively dilutionary for NGF shareholders and may not give good value for CRK shareholders.

    My take on what Freedman is likely to do is to get CRK re-rated by having it go into production (see his press releases). He will use that to get CRK increased market credibility and enable it to fund its own milling operation and further exploration at a lower cost (ie less dilution). If the resource is good enough as demonstrated by further drilling then CRK will attract takeover interest. Have a look at the credentials of the most recently appointed director - he looks like he has been brought in to help manufacture some deal.

    Anyway, it is all just my speculation and gut feel. I could be totally wrong.

    loki
 
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