let's get back to fundamentals, page-29

GPASAS

The transport industry has always been an issue for me. Containers have changed the game completely. The following is how I understand it. When its balanced its a straight movement but as the trade process has changed the flow of full containers has been towards the First world and less flow is returned. This issue has resulted in very different pricing models. If for example you are bring something from a net inward bound location than you get a very cheap price but if its on a high demand route you almost subsidize the repatriation of the container. You then overlay this with a world demand factor and at times the ships are desperate for cargo and at times not. These create an over competitive market that moves very quickly in regard to pricing. The ships need to run and they need to have a volume of cargo aboard.

I suspect that from USA towards Asia is a low tariff return leg as the finished goods are travelling from China to USA and Europe. So transport costs are subsidized coming this way and hence its very cheap to bring stuff in. A year ago I could have imported a container cheaper than the break bulk I did import and found out the hard way only after I did it.

Thus transport has become a fickle bedfellow as it has probably diminished as a percentage over time for importers of Soda ash. However you now want outbound cargo to New Caledonia. Imports there from Australia are 10% and they import more by value than they export but they export minerals mostly ( around 95% plus). So at best its balanced but in fact 26% of imports come from France and a further 16% from the balance of Europe. My best guess is that its probably not a cheap run to New Caledonia and with the bulk of the cargo going to China its probably easier to import from China than from here. So bottom line is I cannot answer that question as it no longer relates to distance but to routing.
Only have a few shares just to be on register.