What is coming from the Gillard cabinet environment discussion this week? It will have to go a long way to neutralizing the Greens desire that individuals and industry substitute renewables for fossil fuels more rapidly than at the moment. Household, commercial and industry energy efficiency increases by regulation will be there (but not too much least plant that is not yet near end of life has to be retired prematurely). Carbon pricing in some form, too controversial although planning will start (again). Best bet is that the SRET multiplier will be extended to larger scale renewables plants than currently. Thus I am betting we will see the multiplier extend from the current 1kWp photovoltaic to a larger number likely to approximate a suburban roof size (one side x 200m2=100m2 x 20% efficient module x 1kW insolation is 20kW which is too big for suburban electrical distribution systems). So, scale it back to 10kWp which will also enable many commercial offices/shops/small factory units to use it. My prediction then is for; the renewables multiplier to be applied to systems up to 10kW, that the multiplier be reduced to x3 instead of x5 that all states be required to accept power from domestic and commercial PV systems up to 10kWp all details above will be reviewed frequently by a standard deflation formula to keep costs in check and to moderate the rate of industry growth to allow a skills base to develop.
A major boom in PV is coming. Soltec will have to work hard to preserve territory and maintain margin. They have done well so far, so take a pat on the back.
GOE Price at posting:
9.8¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
