Agree .... The GS boyz are in the business of making cash. If they had any insider knowledge on this deal, they would have been buying up way before 17/05.
Its actually a double edged sword for S/H, but in the short term I'm pretty happy about their involvement. Lets say AWE let the offer lapse at July 9 with no increase. (Makes perfect business sense), but, now that Goldilocks and Co are taking an interest, even if AWE takes the offer off the table, GS (if they are serious) will most likely soak up any panick selling to increase their leverage in the Co. (although they will probably take their orders off the DOM to induce the selling pressure if AWE have done the same ... also perfect business sense) ..... The ride could get a little hairy for any nervous holders, but the 5% stake taken by GS actually takes a fair bit of the short term muscle away from AWE
If AWE lets the offer lapse and GS remove their bids, or vica verca, what they will be looking for is large holders dumping on market so they can clean them up, and therfore get the control they want through the back door. We actually need GS to step forward and keep buying in the short term. Unfortunately in the medium term, they will be just as happy to strap us to a barrell and sell the company up for a 20% return when it suits them.
If the large share holders dont sell, there are no problems, and everyone will do ok eventually .... seatbelts may be required!
The other scenario is of course, AWE actually want the company, and raise their bid to say 65 cents, and clean out enough S/H's (including GS) to get control quickly ... I'm not gona be real happy even with 65, but its a lot better than 40 ..... Unless we get some more muscle appearing on the share register to keep the vultures at bay, the dream of a buck fifty in a couple of years is looking unlikely.
ADI Price at posting:
42.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
