Very much my thoughts, and thanks for showing it graphically.
I dare say though it is not just people switching, but now it's people pulling money out of the market entirely, and they are looking at what's held up reasonably well to sell.
Further the AUD shows that foreigners are pulling money out of Australia in a bit of a panic (yes even vs NZ, look how sharply the AUD/NZD has fallen since Swan swooped). We know that the TO offer will have attracted a lot of hot banker money into AOE, the type that runs with the herds. Atm it is in panic.
Brings me to the Shell offer. Shell THINK only in USD, and on that account their offer for AOE is already 10% cheaper. If Shell knocked 10% off the offer they get another 10% off, and gives a modest 45cps market value to the Dart shares.
20% cheaper for Shell would be a bargain for Shell, provided the govt relents at least enough for a viable csg LNG industry. Remember 20% off AOE is more like 30% off the tenements when AOE cash and electricity assets are considered.
Discl: I've sold nearly half mine since Swan's swoop, as for me it is no longer a long term asset, and hence one of the most dispensable at a time I'd prefer less debt.
EL
AOE Price at posting:
$4.64 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
