I don't think the price will crash if the offer get rejected. It may (and may not) give a little but it will come back higher IMO.
After all, tell me who in the CSG companies has what we have got available, not just with reserves, but with ongoing sales, LNG projects, power generation and the list goes on and on.
And don't forget that Shell's offer is the lowest paid per gigajoule in any CSG takeover previously done.
The only thing we have against us is the stranglehold that Shell has upon us. But if someone else came out, Shell would have to reconsider their position. And if the Management would have/show that they have the proverbials and tell Shell where to go, and let them have their 30% of the tenements for them to explore at their own costs, I feel sure that AOE's sp would skyrocket as a result. All we have with Shell at present is like having a BIG BALL AND CHAIN tighten up at our ankles.
The point is (and I have read this the other day as well), Companies think that when they let someone big in, like Shell did with AOE, they have the idea that we will have an ongoing partner to help us along. To the contrary. When these companies come in and take control of say 20 or 30 percent of the Company like Shell was allowed to do, they also sign their death sentence.
Yes they got a big lump sum for selling that percentage of the tenements, [and they dragged us (AOE) along before they got the full payment as well to make it a little harder] but where did that money go..??? Into drilling and developing those tenements, untill Shell decide it was time to pick the fruit of their investment AT THEIR PRICE THOUGH.
Tell me, why didn't Shell helped AOE in the PES takeover.? Because if they did, AOE would have become bigger and more costlier and powerful for them to buy out when they were ready. There lies your answer. In the meantime when they sold their holdings in PES they practically recovered most, if not all, all of the money they paid AOE in the first place.
Hence why, IMHO, AOE's Management are laying low in disbelief, knowing that they have been caught out with their pants down, and hoping that nothing will come out of it.
And, more than likely, if an Independent Expert report is to be organized, it would show that they got it all wrong and that the offer is way below the real value of the Company.
Buddy
AOE Price at posting:
$4.64 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
