ADI 2.35% $3.05 apn industria reit

fair value

  1. 47 Posts.
    In todays ADI's release ADI stated

    "The Board of Adelphi advises its shareholders should TAKE NO ACTION and await Adelphis further advice after it has properly considered the offer in consultation with its advisors,Hartleys Limited"

    I have just read the last Hartleys broker report published on the 26/3/2010 (available to the general public on ADI's website) and noticed the following statements within it :

    "To give an indication of potential value, there could be over 200 well locations on the Sugarloaf acreage, resulting in over 1 trillion cubic feet of gas equivalent. We estimate that Adelphis share of this at current spot
    prices (US$80 oil, US$4 gas) is worth ~150cps (using US$2 per mcfe calculated net present value and 10% working interest post farmout). At US$100 oil, the valuation potential increases to over 200cps."

    "Strong newsflow is expected over the next 2-3 months as the additional 3 wells are completed, fracture stimulated and flow tested. Now that the technical risk has been decreased due to a substantial number of successful wells being drilled in the play, we view these wells as very low risk (90% chance of success)"

    "We recently upgraded ADI to a Buy based on the initial flow rates received from its first two wells and consistent information from wells in the surrounding acreage. This new information has increased our confidence in the potential of the resource and we re-iterate our Buy recommendation and short term price target of 45cps.
    If initial results from the next three wells (expected over the next 2-3 months)continue to be strong, there is substantial room in our valuation for further large upgrades in price target and valuation, as indicated by our unrisked valuation of 188cps."

    If anything hasnt the potential of the assets been further enhanced since this report dated 26/3/10 ?.

    I just hope that the "further advice" ADI will provide to its shareholders and the market does not water this down and importantly that they highlight underlying (unrisked) potential value of the assets they have on the books.

    Appreciate any views

 
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