I think you nailed it Oscarwon, timing it before the specs is something that I have never been good at so I am happy to enter early and pickup extra value along the way.
Its speculative value before the drill which is driven by speculative buyers. after the drill if it is confirmed, then it will be driven by serious buyers, the same way it will be driven down by specs leaving rapidly if it hits nothing.
Not for the faint hearted.
SF