making me sob, page-5

Hi risy

thank you for your reply. The 1.2m capacity roll out is the target for FY2010. I am crossing my fingers they announce as advised at EOM. I see this brewery no different to the likes of LWB. Kiirin via Lion too has about a 40% stake and the PE is around 20+.

My calcs: (i wish i could attach spsheet)
Profit@$2 a case
Year 0 350,000 cases growing to 5m cases Year 5.
Profit Year 0 from $700K to $10m year 5.
Year 0= $700K
Year 1= $2m
Year 2= 4m
Year 3= 6m
Year 4= 8m
Year 5= 10m

NPV @15% return (very reasonable) = NPV (0.15, 2000,4000,6000,8000,10000)= $18m.
Current discounted EPS = $18m/302m= 0.06
Current price 10c
Current discounted PE= 0.1/.06= 1.65

Assumed discounted PE should be =20
Hence using current disc EPS 0.06
Current price should be 0.06*20=$1.2

Please do challenge.