takeover offers

Lots of many good posts recently, difficult to read them all, but I do not recall having seen a deeper analyis of the SP effects of the Toho vs. Nystar offers. Sorry if I should have missed that, but here are my personal thoughts.

So the Toho offer is to increase to 49.9% ownership at 25 cents per share. This means Toho will buy the pro-rated amount of shares from stockholders they need to get to 49.9%. This means they will buy somewhere near 25% of our stocks at that price.
Nyrstar offers 19.5 cents for everything we have.
If I did not miscompute, this means the Toho offer is only better, if the shares remaining in our possession are then priced at or above approx. 17.5 cents. This is not likely to happen short term, since after this taekover furor is over, CBH will go back to where it came from. Due to the recent PR maybe a little more than that, like to 12-14 cents. So we will have to wait for CBH to develop. Will CBH ever exceed the 17.5? Quite likely but not guaranteed, and if so, the question is when. A function of the risks of the Zn market, which we will remain exposed to, plus the next decisions of Toho. What happens, e.g., if they decide to move forward with their expansion plans, seeking the required cash among shareholders. Like through a nice capital increase. Then we would have to basically buy most of our own shares back. Nice move.

The Nyrstar proposal, by contrast, will provide a better "instant" gratification for shareholders.

So the question we need to ask ourselves is, whether we prefer the "sparrow in our hands" vs. vs, "the dove on the rooftop", and whether we trust Toho to not abuse their increased future power over CBH. Have they been trustworthy in the past? You bet. In the future? Oh, well.

I am wondering, whether I should sell now, and buy back when the certain SP retreat has occured after execution of the Toho takeover. Just to take advantage of current market hopes that Nyrstar may come back with an even better offer, or even a third party. Honestly speaking, I don't think so.

Some consideration for the weekend.