Actually Shell need AOE gas quite a lot. That these big boys have many projects does not make them less greedy, less needy, less cunning, nor less aggressive in seeking their multiple objectives. If otherwise then they'd have stayed big little boys nursing one project at a time.
Shell have an opportunity in Petrochina to supply gas from Australia, not from Qatar (where there is a moratorium on further development), not from Iran where they are probably not allowed, not from Malaysia or Indonesia which are drying up.
Really, where else do you think Shell are doing to get the gas for the Chinese? from Alaska or the Texas panhandle (their potential foe), Siberia (ditto and expensive plus Shell has been burnt there). From their LNG plants in Nigeria that keep getting shutdown, that rebels want closed?
Shell has lots of options, but some look sweeter than others, and paying a 1% down payment on the ultimate market value of a quality, low risk prospective resource (including the 2p and 3P) probably looks quite attractive.
Remember Shell get an operating gas/power business worth perhaps $1 ps, plus about 50 cents of cash (and cash due up to FL FID from Shell), so the first indicative offer may only be valuing gas in the ground at $2.95 ps or so.
Atm imho taking an Asia-Pacific perspective the game is Australia - East and West.
We can go it alone and in less than 5 years we"ll we'll have 2 little trains producing more than Darwin, and if we don't give equity away be producing more LNG than WPL currently has equity in.
Of course if we don't part with equity we must raise cash.
EL
AOE Price at posting:
$5.29 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held