wild guess, page-31

While we're all hopeful that Kilwani will one day go into production (and this is the potential company maker), UK is where gains can be made in the short-term.

Production increases due to the reworking of Lidsey won't add much value without increased reserves - going from 85 BOPD to 200 will bring forward cashflow, but if the Lidsey reserves stay at 128000 then the well will deplete quickly. My calcs equate to about 4c per share for current UK production (@10% discount rate). If production is increased to 200 BOPD, this might only generate 1c more per share if there isn't a commensurate increase in reserves.

The gains from the reworked UK fields will require new reserve estimates. Say we get 200 BOPD and a new Lidsey reserve estimate of 1 million barrels - this could push the UK value above 10c per share. Reserves might be much greater than this (I recall reading up to 9million potential), as could be flow rate. If things go well the value of the UK operations could exceed 20c per share.

Regarding updating the market, while it can be frustrating at times, I've learned to live with it over the last 2+ years as a Key investor. To me an attraction of Key is that it's current unworked UK assets + cash together should justify a price of at least 7c per share, so the downside risk is very small. It also implies that the risk-adjusted value of ALL of Key's other assets - Kilwani, Italy, Suriname, and the re-worked Lidsey field, is just 4c. We all know the potential of Kilwani, and I'd be surprised if the re-worked Lidsey field alone isn't worth more than 4c. Thankfully (touch wood) we're not going to have to wait too long to see what Lidsey brings.