Hi All, I know it's dangerous to look at events in isolation, but I have been giving some thought to the potential impact of the much anticipated CDC guideline update.
The original Quantiferon guidelines were issued in late December 2005.
Sales for the Dec-06 half were 179% higher than the corresponding period, and sales for FY07 were 102% higher than FY06.
I note that Lodge Partners are forecasing 71% sales growth from FY10 (41.1m) to FY11 (70.4m).
Given the expectation of "preferred" status as indicated in the perliminary guidelines, perhaps 71% is too conservative??
Say Lodge have FY10 right, but the CDC guidelines push sales up 100% as in FY07. That would make FY11 sales $82.2m or 17% higher than the Lodge forecast.
It's really the great unknown, but I believe history is telling us that the CDC guidelines will certainly have a positive impact on sales.
If the guidelines move us to the "tipping point", then 100% growth may also prove to be conservative!
Cheers Dr_Dazmo
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