new offer likely, page-22

EL

I don't have any doubt that management rejects this current offer. Shell/Petrochina is probing the waters trying to see if any competitive bidders stump up while the price is still lowish. They tested at 3 billion now 3.3 + an unknown amount of script in AOEI. We don't know whether Shell is determined to see this process through or allow it to pass like the last approach.

AOE approaching FID for Fishermans landing would lead some credance to the fact that Shell is under some timing pressure.

The problem is to progress the story on their own AOE needs to raise 500mm plus. Bank debt is not an option while cash flow is still relatively low. Any raising will potentially be 10 -15% lower that the current SP.

I respect you have a lot more experience in CSG and have followed for many years.

Who do you see as a possible bidder out of the existing players involved in Queensland CSG?

Reading STO, ORG and BG's reports show they are all very passionate about Queensland CSG.

Or is it more likely a Non chinese asian wholesaler or utility co?

I had AOE on a watchlist for a long time and bought sub 4 bucks then more again sub 3.50. Have to confess I sold the majority on Monday but still holding 30% odd.

I personally never have a problem realising good short term profit even when the story is as you say so compelling. Would like to see AOE survive as a independent player however I believe a lower SP will be required if that senario eventuates.

I see ORG and BOW as the next best places for the next stage of the game.