Following the announcement today, Seven becomes vulnerable for an attack by CMJ or privately held CPH.
Given Stokes private interests can't vote their 49% stake, at Market Cap of $1.4bn, 0.7bn of free float, it would only take a $140m buy side order in Seven to get enough to hold sway in the Scheme. Packer interests could buy this stake, then deal with Stokes to get get Stokes off CMJ, in return for going ahead with Scheme.
A sample result could be CMJ buys back Stokes CMJ holding, pushing Packer over 50% in CMJ (at a discount), and Seven buys back the newly bought Packer holding to get Scheme through.
For only $140m it may be a punt Packer deems worth taking to have own destiny going forward. It would be low risk for both owners given both companies are trading at discounts to theoretical intrinsic value.
SEV Price at posting:
$6.99 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
