arrival of the bots, page-13

They did say that the fracs would take about 14 days on Weston. They have to drill the plugs and then measure flow. They started on the 4th (whose time? - the Texans are still in bed). There doesn't seem to be any need to worry (yet) about reporting on the fracs. I read the ADI statement as saying that they won't provide a weekly review of operations. Not that they would not be reporting on operations.

As to waiting for 2015 - maybe - if Hilcorp stick at one rig. 18 months ago, AUT painted scenarios in a presentation showing 20 wells drilled in 1 or 2 years and escalating. Will Hilcorp bring in additional rigs? Their big enough to manage multi-drilling and they've just cashed up. They are working on Weston and Easley simultaneously (drilling + workover). 3 drilling rigs must be able to drill 12 - 15 wells a year. At that rate, there could easily be more than 20 wells by the end of 2011. Cash flow? ADI said that new wells (twice the length) could be extrapolated from Kennedy.

20 x 10% x (2,000 bpd + 8mmcfgpd) = 4,000 bpd + 16mmcfgpd attributable. Say net (after royalties, costs and tax) $40 per barrel and $3 mcfg.

That's $160,000 + $48,000 per day attributable net (USD).

Annual net attributable - USD 65m and escalating

That's about 50 cents (Aus) per share net of tax earnings.

That's almost twice the current share price.

Would that support Hartleys AUD 1.80?

All back of an envelope.