From all the research reported it is clear IMO that the Eagleford and the limestones are hydrocarbon saturated. The difference from area to area is basically the oil/gas ratio. So far it seems we are in a sweet spot. The market will see this as results come in over the months to come. IMO ADI will contiue to rise over this period. I can't recall a single failed well over the whole Eagleford!!
Long term they might need another project. They will retain 10%, but this will limit the price long term. Do they pull out of the Yemen sale or should they look elsewhere? I seem to remember Hartleys gave a short term target of 27 cents, but said that $1.80 could be feasible. I usually divide their estimates by two. This served me very well with CVN. So 90 cents seems attainable (at least ). For blue sky appeal they IMO need to look elsewhere and their cash flow from the sugarkane seems assured so they should be able to do so. My vote is to retain the Yemen interest . Are there any other suggestions ? It seems to me it is the obvious area as they were until the recent crunch very keen on it.
Has the Indonesian option closed or are there still possibilities there? Pure speculation on my part. My comments accept that the sugarkane is a major moneymaker possibly for the next 20 years; for further growth IMO they will need to look elsewhere. They have less than 200 million shares which seem tightly held.Therefore for further expansion I feel they will need to look elsewhere. They have time on their side except for Yemen which was one of my reasons in buying ADI in the first place.The penny will drop shortly and the ASX price will start to reflect reality!!
ADI Price at posting:
26.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held