appreciate that there are a number of assumptions etc that have to be made in making a valuation estimate; it pains me to say it, but the acreage that VPE are sitting on through 171 and 574 is worth a considerable amount more than that.
Assuming that 100% 650PJ VPE net GIP is recoverable, then I would assume a 65c/GJ value and place the asset at a value of around $422m. Ordinarily you would put a much lower recoverable resource, however, I think that VPEs GIP figures might actually be skewed and already be the expected recoverable resource as opposed to the typical gas-in-place estimate. Just a suspicion. If we apply a high 30% recovery this still places a $126m value on them alone.
The most recent and equivalent metric from the AJL 15% transaction from ATP651 to Toyota was at around 65c/GJ@3P.
I would assume a high chance of success for their acreage considering the discoveries in both nearby Cameron and Polaris fields; and importanly, a high chance of being exploited and subsequent acquisition or off take agreements.
The elphinstone and ex-QGC interest in the company is also a clear indicator of the quality acreage and value attached to it.
VPE is well undervalued, but there are a lot of historical factors which affect this as well.
Regards,
SF
VPE Price at posting:
25.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held