I thought BG said 17,000 PJ of reserves and resources, which could even mean some 2C, rather than 3P.
I'd say that once BG had more than enough 3P for the project they focussed on developing to 2P, and even some to 1P, rather than looking for more 3P (for now).
With AOE operated permits having 11,000 PJ 3P (about half net to AOE), with 6000 already at 2P, and consider just how important QGC is globally to BG, you get to appreciate what an awesome resource the relatively tiny AOE is already sitting on.
Well on the way to supplying a Shell Curtis Island project. And if 2 or 3 tcf short, well BOW might just get to supply Shell on similiar terms to what Arrow will (as I am sure AOE has not intention of having capital in Shells huge capex facility).
What we need is for FL or Shell's Curtis Island to happen. Both would be nice, but we don't need both. My bet is Shell WILL go ahead, and it might not even sign up sales contracts for all the output before going ahead. A company like Shell could decide like BG to use it's international network of supply and demand to manage sales destination in the future. Just as with oil now.
My bet is further sp weakness then a massive sp surge, which will give the shorters third degree burns, once Shells plans take the next big sudden step forward.
EL
AOE Price at posting:
$3.43 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
