Agree broadly with your analysis. However, your operating costs are way too high. Management was internalised in 2008 and the figures given in the prospectus included costs of organising the debt for tunnel. I would add $1m to the $30.7m mentioned in the prospectus giving total operating costs of $31.7m.
They also have an extra $65m on hand because they stopped paying dividends. So, theoretically you could deduct that from the debt reducing interest costs by $4.5m p.a. Plus they expect to make $1m p.a. from advertising/leasing telecoms space. Oh, and a once off $11m from selling land after tunnel completion.
It seems to me that they will not pay a dividend until they have refinanced the 2014 debt. So, obviously this will affect the debt repayment schedule too.
I would use a figure of $4.86 per vehicle to allow for the higher payments for commercial vehicles. I assumed the same proportion of vehicles as per prospectus to come up with that figure.
So I would suggest 17900 vehicles p/day to cover operating costs (31.7M) and 53300 p/day to cover the interest on the debt (94.5M) giving a total of 71200 vehicles per day to cover interest and operating costs. Which is suprisingly close to the figure they gave of 70% of prospectus traffic required for this tunnels future to be in its own hands.
RCY Price at posting:
28.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
