MOG 0.00% 0.5¢ moby oil & gas ltd

pattersons on moby 1 -follow up to my post yesterd

  1. 658 Posts.
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    · The Moby #1 well in permit Vic P47 has drilled to a total depth of 639m.

    · The target Gurnard formation was intersected 534-566m. The gross gas column is 32m, and is very similar to the producing Patricia gas field.

    · Porosity and permeability is similar to that at Patricia Balleen.

    · Equity participants in the permit are: MOG 35%, Eagle Bay Resources 25%, BAS 40%.





    Impact:



    · The pre-drill estimate was for a mean volume of 70 Pj. A 32m gross gas column suggests upside to around 85-110 Pj in volumes.

    · This implies a valuation for BAS of between $0.35-$0.40/share.

    · For MOG - assuming the gas only case - we conclude a value of $0.32-$0.35/share (fully diluted for all options), while for EBR, we suggest a value around $0.05/share for its interest in the Moby well.

    · We continue to rate BAS as a STRONG SPEC BUY, as it has very high leverage to the Zane Gray well (expected to be drilled in late November), while we would look to reduce our rating on MOG to a HOLD at around $0.30/share.

    · Note that the Moby 1 well will be plugged and abandoned in any event, after a full suite of logs and sidewall cores, plus formation testing is completed.

 
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