Its all about what Tullow and Heritage have been able to discover within the last year and a half. The Giraffe/ Buffalo find in block 1 is huge, humongous, with many suggesting that Block 1 alone could reach the magical 1 billion barrel mark. Of course there is a lot of work to do and that is why Heritage sold there 50% of block 1 and 3 for US$1.5 Billion to energy giant ENI. With ENI now on board more work will be done to assess the oil fields, more drilling more planned infrastructure, more government involvement etc. This is all good if TRP/ GBP drill and find a reserve similar to Block 1.
This is what makes the TRP/ GBP investment worthwhile, they are drilling in the right area, there are proven oil field finds within 80K and both stocks have low MARCAPS - TRP £27M, GBP below AUD$30M. The safer investment is GBP which still is cashed up with with AUD$25M in the bank, so if there is another duster it will trade down to approx cash value about 12-13C after drilling expenditure. Less of the upside, less of the risk. However, both opportunities if invested now will enable you to be on at least 100% free carry before spud in February (in my opinion).
GBP Price at posting:
16.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held