it's a buy for me on vba, page-2

What a testing week. At one stage today VBA was down 7% and for the week down 19%. By the end of the session VBA was up and down only 12% for the week. I'm looking forward to a few grogs tomorrow night.

While I'm not renting VBA, I've been questioning my assunptions about VBA (especially today) but concluded not much has changed. So I started buying and will buy more if there is further weakness. By mid next year many investors will be kicking themselves for not buying VBA between 40c and 50c. This is the pull back we had to have and there is weakness across the board. This will not last forever for so many reasons.

Some thoughts about my take on the AUD given the impact it has on VBA NPAT. I still believe it will hit 95c by the end of the year. The dollars taken it nice and hard in the last week but I believe this is a short term correction. Why? 1) The jibber out of the US about a change in US monetary policy stance is unlikley given the low inflation rate, disappearance of the stimulus package, certainly no asset bubble, US economic fundamentals are still pretty ordinary, deleveraging etc 2) Risk averse (go figure). Other factors that will push the Aussie higher - Aussie rates will continue to move upwards to more normal rates (evens if its only 25bps on Tuesday) and therefore continue to widen the rate differential between Australia and the US (unlikley to move until 2nd half next year). Our economy and fundamentals are much stronger, investors will continue to get exposure to the China story via Australia and commodity prices continue to be supportive.

I'll be interested in the US GDP figure tonight, operating statistics for Sep 09 which is due out in the next few days and what they'll say at the AGM in late November. Whats everybody else thinking - still like the story?