given the amazing run on this stock, then it does give rise to at least a passing interest.
to start of with, it could be that the early pushers of this stock, jumped ship.
the point about meo is interesting - as from the meo reports, it seems that meo want to farm out a 50% equity in the prospect, as well as to fund meo's residual interest in two follow up wells - no such deal for mog - they might be free carried in the first well, but then they will have to cough up for subsequent wells.
as has also been mentioned, mog need to find a motza to drill the farm ins that they have on another couple of prospects.
to place any sort of value on the mog equity in the artemis prospect, the best way would be to have a bit of a guesstimate of how much the market places on cue's 15% stake. the full market cap of cut is about $175m - but they have several other prospects (as well as production).
the first post on this thread contained the following
"EVEN IF MOG HEADS TO 80 CENTS WITH A BULLET and is hence then valued at $60 mill (before dilution) that is still one third the SP of CUE which is currently $180 mill market cap and far less than MEO current market cap @ $255 Million which has an extra 5 percent of Artemis after farmout hence the extra market cap for MEO."
the reality is that dilution has to be taken into account - and the absolute minimum number of shares that should be considered is 200m shares (ie existing shares plus 120m shares) - then toss in another 100m shares for capital raisings, - which really means that a minimum of 300m shares need to be issued - so what would be a reasonable market price
cue shares have moved up about 10 c, from the middle of july, which could be a reflection of the artemis prospect - so it could be that the market has valued the prospect at about $70m for cue
meo have gone from about 35c in the middle of july to about 65c - which based on 420m shares, means that the market thinks 70% of artemis is valued at $120m - sure, it is more complex than that as meo want of farm out 50% - leaving them with 20% (plus free carried in another couple of wells)
maybe at best, the cue valuation of $70m could be a ballpark figure, and based on mog ending up with 300m shares, then 23c might be a reasonable price.
talk of 80c in the first post of this thread was day dreaming, and no doubt some hc readers fell for the spin, and rushed in the other morning
MOG Price at posting:
23.2¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
