IMO most of them have a reasonable to high probability of occuring.
The current FY09 profit of 48M does not require any further contracts to be signed and has recently been re-affirmed as late as 2 weeks ago.
3.5 weeks remain in the current year, so you would have to say that it is very likely.
We have good word that the Vietnamese deal is on its way (obviously fact since 20500 said so! ;-) ).
After signing an MOU, I understand it is just a matter of coming to terms. Given the nature of Nexcode and its ability to overlay the existing infrastructure, it sounds like a very viable technology so I would consider the deal to be very likely too.
As for the Malaysian Drivers License deal. Well, the government is on record as supporting the company, its technology and the intention to roll it out across multiple departments. In the bag when you consider the other privileges the government has afforded ETC like MSC taxt status and the like.
The only concern I have is cashflow timing. As others have pointed out previously, there are a few minor unexplained things that need to be put to bed. Now I can understand cashflow and accounting profit can be disjointed, especially when you are dealing with large contracts with periodical payments.
I understand the company is receiving the Malaysian revenue upfront as they print off the codes/cards and the Chinese will be paying fixed amounts on a quarterley basis.
That should take care of things on that count.
I guess we are always taking a punt with emerging companies. So much can go wrong.
These guys seem to be able to roll out their solutions with relative ease and what few delays which have occured have resulted from the Malaysian government's decision making processes.
We are all on the outside and the best we can do is read between the lines. Your concerns are well founded though not likely to eventuate IMO.
ETC Price at posting:
48.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held