updated mathematical mof garble

A few weeks ago i posted on MOF about very rudimentary mathematical upside table just fo the sake of analysis. http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=874818&msgid=4862066

Been rather a good few weeks for mixed property / REIT porfolios and thought i'd revisit the original thread for my own analysis as to where my own tactics lie. As per original thread rules still apply,

i.e. these are purely mathematical upside tables and have so many assumptions. They do not in any way judge the stability or competance of a company and can only be used as one of many factors when determining strategy, but its a good place to start IMHO.

i.e
Assume
- all REITs/property are ran equally
- all REITs/property are equally well managed
- all REITs/property are equally affected by the GFC
- all REITs/property have identical debt issues
- all REITs/property have identical tennency percentages etc etc

...if you get my drift, these are completely wild assumptions just for the sake of analysis and for that purpose i dont care they are not entirely true...

Then if we take current SP as a proportion of 52 week high then you have a mathematical upside table as below (forgive any REITS & property sector shares i've missed as there are some):


+/-
1 VPG 7% 75% n/c
2 GMG 7% -18% +4
3 IIF 8% 0% n/c
4 ILF 9% -10% +4
5 AEZ 10% 30% -3
6 FKP 14% 0% +4
7 TSO 16% 80% n/c
8 CER 17% 90% -3
9 MOF 17% 0% +2
10 SDG 17% -5% +2
11 CNP 18% 5% -2
12 GPT 19% 0% +2
13 MDT 21% 133% -9
14 LLP 25% 38% -1
15 APZ 25% 4% +3
16 MCW 26% 24% -1
17 ABP 26% 0% +4
18 CHC 27% 15% -1
19 BJT 27% 15% n/c
20 IOF 27% -10% +2
21 AEU 31% 40% -5
22 ALZ 35% 40% -2
23 DXS 43% -13% +1
24 SGP 44% -14% +2
25 WDC 47% -17% +5
26 OAK 48% 20% -3
27 CPA 50% -10% +2
28 CDI 54% 4% +1
29 LLC 57% 9% -1
30 MLE 59% 21% -5
31 CFX 61% -3% n/c
32 BWP 70% -15% n/c


There are many factors i find interesting about this updated analysis.

- Firstly, if you invested equal sums in all 32 shares listed above for the last 4 weeks, you'd have made approx 17% return.
- despite increasing 75% in 4 weeks, VPG is still top of this table
- The four stocks to explode (VPG, CER, MDT & TSO) were in mathematical upside positions (1,5, 6 & 7) a month ago.
- Stocks closest to their 52 week high a month ago have statistically retraced slightly enforcing the willingness of the market for risk and volatility.
- i believe mathematically we aren't far from a swing of strategies from the perceived riskier property stocks (VPG, MDT, CER, TSO etc) into the middle tier safer plays, and expect this to take place in the next few weeks.

"If you had two apples at the same cost, but one tastes better then wouldn't you naturally buy that one?"

The last points particularly relevant to this thread. I personally am accumulating more in this middle tier now and moving gently away from the volatile/ explosive property plays. This being said i look at the list and see the particular standout opportunity being the low risk SDG and am extremely happy to hold CHC and AEU in particular. MOF has moved much closer to the take off range since the original post.