shell intentions for arrow

I was contemplating where Shell would sit in AOE scheme of things, once the PES takeover is finalised.
I have not ascertained whether Shell already has a s/h in AOE, but if it is below 5% then they do not have to announce it.
I would be surprised if they did not already have a s/h in Arrow.
Shell has 14.88% or 13.887m shares in PES.
PES Options of 32m expire Dec 08 - so add to Ords of 93.3m gives total PES Ords of 125.3m.
Arrow has about 703.3m Ords currently I think.
Takeover of PES by Arrow provides for 1.21 Arrow shares for each PES share, so there will be 151.6m new AOE shares issued to PES s/h.(125.3m x 1.21 = 151.6m).
Of these, Shell will get 16.8m new AOE shares (13.887m x 1.21 = 16.8m new AOE shares).
AOE expanded capital will be existing ord shares of 703.3m plus 151.6m new shares which equals 854.9m.

Therefore Shell will have almost 2% of the AOE expanded capital (16.8m / 854.9m x 100).

That's a rough calculation.
But if Shell already has a holding in AOE, then Shell could potentially be close to up to 7% maybe.
anyway, once the new AOE shares are allotted to Shell as a result of the PES takeover, they will have to announce it to ASX if their holding exceeds 5% of AOE.

When Shell agreed to sell their PES shares into the PES takeover they would have had to make a conscious decision as to whether they wanted AOE scrip.
They obviously decided they DID want AOE scrip.

IMHO that indicates that Shell would be a very likely bidder for AOE, particularly if they already had a good starting shareholding in Arrow.

That's got to be good for AOE share price !?

cheers