The revaluation at 31 december migh be spooking people. What can be expected? Conditions are deteriorating somewhat in Europe, but interest rates should be coming down too. Will this have a bearing on the capitalisation rate? The spanish proety holding looks like it could go over the lenders very conservative LTV line. Maybe a couple of the last buys at risk of this too. The property market in Spain is very poor, with for sale signs up all over. The bust after the boom. To me it would be a silly bank that forced a sale if its perodic payments were being met-and this looks likely to be not at risk. The gap between valuation and debt is still fairly high and AFG would walk away with a substantial amount of cash in hand even in the one closest to the trip wire.
To me these percentage LTV conditions on the moving value of the property are very bad practice. Fine, when the loan is first made, but covenants such as this are the stuff of property busts. The bankers are so silly they do it to themselves. Cant see the wood for the trees.
Forcing investors who are making their payments onto a bad market just pushes the market down and it takes the banks down with it. It is such an old old story. They never, ever learn. If you have a relative who is abit slow and dull, suggest they look to a bank for a job. Future assured for slow learners who dont do their historic homework. Just until the bank goes bust though.
AEZ Price at posting:
5.3¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held