neiln, page-20

Thanks Watford,

Doesn't really gell with the Half Year Report I just read. Net Profit for the half was $3.5M which INCLUDED upward asset revaluation and is a long way from $44M. This is the dodgy accounting that got the REIT's in so much trouble.... where does profit go if the assets are written down in value instead of up with rising capitalisation rates like most other assets during this time of speculative unwinding?

Gearing stood at 65% with over $1B debt against $1.6B assets. Further, most of these assets are completely illiquid being carrying value of grower holding companies ($111M), securitised grower loans receivables which sounds like a CDO to me! ($350M)and of various property, plant, equip and stuff growing etc. Cant sell down any of that in a pinch.

Cash flow for half was only $15M after dividends from ordinary activities and they needed $60M of new equity issue to cover ongoing capital expenditure program. How are they going to pay down any debt with thin operating cash flows like that. TIM has been careful not to give a "debt due" timeline in their financial reports but I added up a majority of their debt being due from mid 2009 to end 2010. This could be crunch time if debt doesn't get cheaper and freely available.

Just my opinion but gut feeling at a glance is that they are operating an illiquid house of debt and are certainly not without serious risk of it all going custard if credit markets balk at refinancing and shorters get a whiff of blood.

goodluck but probably TIMPB is not for me but certainly look a better bet than the heads.

cheers.