Long-dated real yields are quietly collapsing, page-20

And the 2040 inflation-linked ACGB is now trading at a yield of just 0.28%, quite remarkable the speed of this latest leg down in real (and nominal) yields.

For what it's worth, I disagree that TCL is currently “priced for perfection”.

In fact, relative to the prevailing level of 1) long-term yields, 2) implied future inflation, and 3) investment-grade credit spreads, a simple DCF valuation of the current toll-road portfolio and contracted pipeline shows that the market is already factoring in a slowdown in future traffic growth.

In other words, if traffic growth were assumed to remain around its historical long-term trend of ~3% pa (of which ~2% pa is basically just population growth), then the Net Present Value at current yields and risk premiums of TCL’s asset portfolio and contracted pipeline would comfortably exceed TCL’s current Enterprise Value.