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SP tumbling, is there a agenda? And how low will it drop, page-96

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sydneyguy

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27/03/19

16:38

Post #: 37903599
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Originally posted by yanlin ↑

Having read further BS from the likes of Asb and Pranav re shorting & questioning the quality of GXY assets etc, I think it is clear that they have no idea what they are talking about or what is driving the market. I think the biggest single influencer of the market today has been the release of the Macquarie commodity compendium which absolutely puts the kibosh on Li. Here is one key extract:

"But lithium has a problem with an overwhelming supply response to a bullish story. Helpfully the Australian mining sector seems to have abandoned direct shipping ore (DSO) sales, which begins to manage the raw materials oversupply. With prices coming down there is a growing recognition that quality and product choice will determine the survivors, and we think that those (like Min Res) who seem to be pushing ahead with hydroxide projects (they even sold 50% of Wodgina to ALB to fund it) should be in a better position. With the shift to NMC batteries (see cobalt section) which utilise hydroxide, the brines sector which mostly produces carbonate no longer looks protected from the price slide in the same way, presuming they need to incur further conversion costs and will no longer monopolise the bottom of the cost curve (fig. 164). To be clear, the huge oversupply in this market means we are still looking for prices to drop to around $7,000-8,000/t LCE, to get rationalisation, but the likely survivors look a more mixed group than we previously had thought."

If the readers interrogate the report in more detail, it shows an overwhelming negativity to battery materials over the short term. Here are their negative resource exposures:

"Next 12 months’ least-preferred
 Cobalt/Lithium – both EV-related markets reporting a price-killing supply surge.
 Manganese ore – ore inventories are building through the supply chain.
 Coals – rising/recovering supply dragging on relatively high prices of both trades."

In short, MacBank have done what they did at the start of 2018 (along with Morgan Stanley) and absolutely flog the Li market with talks of a supply tsunami or (this time around) a supply "swamping".
Yes, we know what their game is and we (retail investors) are simply canon fodder.

Looks like another 12 months of pain and misery, hence the reason I decided to take some $$'s off the table. It's too hard to try to swim against the tide of money going the other way.

See you all in about 12 months time.

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lol

but private MacB private put out a strong buy with a target almost double on a lithium miner today, price target in 12 months almost double today

errrrr, people selling and shorting the bejesus out of it on that report?

Anyway, PLS paper released today

file:///C:/Users/Rojan/AppData/Local/Microsoft/Windows/INetCache/IE/H409PWUH/PLS260319e.pdf

.

GXY Price at posting: $1.84 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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SP tumbling, is there a agenda? And how low will it drop, page-96

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