Running discussion on SP, page-16226

For those that didn’t see the PLS announcement today regarding the pricing derivation for PLS. Additionally it’s a an up to date forecast.

Now whilst I still believe PLS pricing regime is on the low side of what is possible if you compare lower grade producers are getting let’s put that conversation on hold, as what they lose at the bottom line they gain by actually getting deals cut.

moving forward.
if we assume avz can produce ~ 7% spod concentrate which I believe is entirely possible especially at 1.5-2% feedstock. Then going off the standard industry pricing for every .1% increase in spod conc equates to $15 increase. I.E 7 x 15 = $105 premium to pricing based on concentrate alone.

IMO with a conservative approach avz should be in production in early 2021. Pending the DFS is positive and we secure funding and move towards construction immediately ~ 18months for construction.

If AVZ were to secure the same pricing mechanism from the same vendors they could be receiving in the realm of $800/t.
This does not take into consideration any credit for other seperated elements.
This does not take into consideration any further premium that may be warranted for its extremely low impurity content.
This does not take into consideration that a better or worse deal could be secured.

The forecast was completed by roskill so I feel it can be considered relatively unbiased. Furthermore, the conversion companies have almost total control over raw supply. So they can sell the concentrate and hydroxide for almost whatever they want and global markets will be forced to pay up. whilst the vertically integrated operations reap the rewards.

all things aside I think based off those figures along with the capex we’ve already seen the figures @8horse ran a few weeks back to garner a NPV were highly profitable even using $600/t from memory. Any danger we could see an update using PLS’s pricing forecast with an avz premium applied as an assumption. I would do it but you’ve got the tables handy.

PLS is now painting the picture that stage 3 is all but a certainty. They’ve got funding and supply almost all secured. Pricing forecasts proving high profitability and now progressing toward setting up a JV for a conversion facility on-site. There is absolutely no doubt or reasoning which would suggest this can’t or won’t happen in manano. If anything, it makes even more sense commercially.

*disclosure, pls holder and bought more today. AVZ holdings are more than triple my pls holdings as reward outweighs risk at these levels.

SF2TH