Very kind of you to say, @48&34 thank you for reading the rambles. I guess as traders we have to be simultaneously grateful for and wary of the big cable networks. It's sometimes hard when watching some of the American desks to discern the opinions of guests from editorial staff, particularly at potential inflection points throughout the year. The Philly Fed president I mentioned might answer "yes" to your question about curve inversion causing fear and a self-fulfilling prophecy. Sort of like how our memories of the last meltdown inform our reactions to charts and data now, even though we know that whatever happens at the end of this cycle will have a new twist. It seems likely that it would contribute but I don't understand how the experts who research the fine points of cause and effect quantify or model that, other than that it must involve aspirin and perhaps alcohol afterwards. I would guess it is only a partial driver.
Monday's Treasury action was muted compared to Friday's, with three-month bills staying put while the ten-year and long bond yields were under pressure -- shrinking the spread between the short bill and the mid range note by another few points. Right now the 2 and 10-year treasury futures are spending the night inside the previous day's candle ranges.
(20min delay)
