Here is Troy Bombardier's discretionary market outlook:
The U.S. stock market’s long term risk:reward is no longer bullish. In a most optimistic scenario, the bull market probably has 1 year left. Long term risk:reward is more important than trying to predict exact tops and bottoms.
The medium term direction (e.g. next 6-9 months) is more bullish than bearish.
The stock market’s short term has a bearish lean due to the large probability of a pullback/retest. Focus on the medium-long term (and especially the long term) because the short term is extremely hard to predict.
Goldman Sachs’ Bull/Bear Indicator demonstrates that while the bull market’s top isn’t necessarily in, risk:reward does favor long term bears.
The Big Kahuna is still looming in the horizon ahead, for those with small equities allocation, pretty safe for a medium ride but focus on stocks that can move (if your stocks are not moving while we are in good territory, you are missing out as your capital is not generating the returns you need during this window of 'safer investing') , for those with large allocations in 1-2 stocks and heavily equities weighted, time to take stock and reduce, reallocate and move into safer pastures. And the worst thing one can do is to throw good money after bad. No matter how cheap a bad/poor stock trades at, it is not worth it -there's a reason it has become cheaper. You wouldn't buy Zimbabwean dollars after it has lost 97% of its value, right?
