K-man your post on the supply arrangment profitability numbers and also MC conservative multiples at 4 and 8 is very insightful...here’s the beauty about this WFE play....
1. We have ourselves a company hoping to relist as a producer...hence it’s possible to bake into the MC the near term profitability and hence cash flow.....this part of your assessment is very similar to some numbers I’ve been running -“~$140million AUD for WFE's 50% JV share (why else secure 640ktpa supply every year for 2.5 years, if you don't plan to process near that?)”
2. We also have a plant which we paid $5.5musd and which is at going concern basis now worth $70m usd and hence take your MC values below...eg at
“At 500,000tpa (Highly Suspicious case): 140mil*4 = $560milion AUD Market Cap”....
Now the MC $560m aud uses the 2.5 years supply at a multiple of 4 and now apply 12 times increase in plant valuation and we have
$627M AUD
WFE Price at posting:
2.4¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held